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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Real Estate: Second Verse, Worse Than The First?

No, not US new-home sales numbers which "unexpectedly" dipped to a record low (as predicted) and no, I'm not talking about the December -16.8% off-a-cliff numbers. There was still some wind-down from the first time homebuyer credit then. Now we're seeing the REAL pop of Obama's housing market demand minibubble.

No, we're not talking about that right now. Right now, we're talking about several hundreds of banks that were safe from going Tango Uniform during the residential real estate crash, going Tango Uniform as a result of the commercial real estate (CRE) crash.

What crash, VFD? CRE may be slow but it isn't in the news. Nobody's talking CRE crash!

Not yet. . . . Ask me again next year. And the year after that. You know, when you are out of a job because your company can't borrow any more money.

It is good to know my company works on a capital basis, vs. a credit basis. It is bad to know that we may shut our doors, when everyone else has to shut their doors also, when the economy collapses.

Time to start laying by stores of food and ammunition: maybe right now. I hope not. We'll see. Worst case, you eat it and laugh at me in 4 years. If we make it that far.

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. . . It's not that I'm a pessimist . . .
. . . but I just saw a hand appear out of nowhere one day and start writing on the wall . . .

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