Unexpectedly!

January 2012 headline: "Holiday" (read: Christmas) seasonal sales dissappoint/miss expectations. It's too bad nobody possibly could have seen this coming!
Mid-2011 Mish headline: shipping is down 15% vs. up 5%, holiday sales will be poor, possibly even down from last year.

Headline soon: Greece defaulted?! Who knew?
Well, everyone who understands such things knew, and here's what the end of the run-up to default looks like:



People buying Greek sovereign debt expect that they will NOT get all the money Greece is promising them. They demand a higher return on their investment. Today, you could buy a bond from Greece for $100 that would get you $163 one year from now if Greece didn't default. The market knows Greece will default and they will only get a fraction (if anything) of what they were promised, so they are charging WAY more interest. This is what they mean by "the market has priced in a default." (also from Mish)