The Very Question!

"What is left? If the government can do this what else can it not do?" Justice A. Scalia March 27, 2012

I cannot say how glad I was to hear with my own ears that this question was asked by one of the 9 black robed figures. Still, I pray.

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Say all you like that health care payment is a nationwide problem, but it is still not a national problem. The payment by an individual, for the services rendered by a private company, in one State, is an individual matter - or at the most, a State matter. There is no-where a place for the federal Government to stick its nose in this business.

Hold on there

If it's a national problem, why then prior to Obamacare are we FORBIDDEN to commit ourselves to INTERSTATE COMMERCE and buy health care payment insurance across state lines?

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I think one way to look at this set of cases is as follows: If Obamacare's individual mandate part is tossed out by the supreme Court, it is a net neutral for the 2012 election. A dramatic example of how the President is a Communist who doesn't know anything about America is offset by the national press corps telling you the REPUBLICANS STOLE YOUR HEALTH!!!!1! So, then, the election will be decided based on the price of a gallon of gasoline. Pre-election gas price drop in October in 3...2... Oh, did you not hear about the Saudis sending us a "wall of oil" because suddenly them making a profit is a problem? Let's review again, on whose watch the price of gas recently doubled, and who has prevented us from getting away from imported oil recently? Hmm....

Peak Oil: Depends On How You Spin The Numbers

The real story here isn't the story on the Watts Up With That page, it's the comments. The story itself says: zOMG PEAK OIL!!!1!

Then comes the comment section in which people who seem to know what they are talking about point out that the Peak Oil theory is, and has been, bad science.

My take: Peak Oil is a myth and we need not legislate by it...but I also think we should be going nuclear while oil is still easy to get. And for crying out loud recycle the spent fuel!

Sorry, What Was That?

So the President can't just say some "just words" and cause prices to fall? Then WTH is up with oil falling $6 when he came out with a small increase in the amount of oil on the world's marketplace? Is the drop in the price of oil just words? Just speeches? Or would that be reality biting his soundbytes in the tuchus?

He said he couldn't lower gas prices in a day or two weeks. He could, but not with this. Two weeks, no . . . but give it a month or two.

*sigh* I shouldn't be surprised that he doesn't (or acts like he doesn't) understand market forces. I am not surprised when supply/demand and speculators' fears interact like they should. I just wish sometimes we had a different President . . . but then I remember we'd have McCain and I wonder which would have been worse for the nation.

EPA: Excluding Production Ability

More oil than has ever flowed through the Alaskan oil pipeline (cumulative) is sitting under the sea off the coast of BFE, Alaska. President Obama does not care for you to have cheap oil (and therefore cheap gasoline) so the oil is now being held just out of reach.

The oil company spent $4B getting ready to go on this oil, but their environmental impact report failed to take into account the pollution generated by an icebreaking ship, so EPA says they can't drill for the oil at all.

Don't be surprised.

News Flash: Sky Blue, Water Wet . . .

. . . and when you spill a gozillion gallons of oil into the ocean and break the seabed so it continues to leak once the well is capped, the oil stays on the bottom for rather longer than one may hope.

Gasoline Prices Rule Of Thumb: Confirmed!

Mish has access to charts I could only wish to have, and he pulled a couple as part of his Gas Price Seasonality, Where to from Here? posting.

Here they are, out of context:

Crude oil prices:



Gasoline prices:



And an overlay for those who missed the correlation:



It is nice to finally have graphical representation of me being right: My rule of thumb is (mostly) valid.Every $25 to $30 on the price of a barrel of oil gives you about $1 on the price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline after a very short delay.

Click any of those charts to see them full-sized. A big ol' hat tip to Michael Shedlock for the first two.

Gas Prices: Where Is The Outrage?

President Obama is getting his wish. He said he wanted gasoline prices to go to $4/gallon gradually (so it's not such a shock), and here we are creeping up through $3/gallon again. As the leftists in the press have their hero in office right now, this is not a problem like it was when the other guy's ox stood to be gored. Government interference with the energy market is screwing up the prices we pay for oil and gas. Still. This toying with our pocketbooks is something for which I previously criticized President Bush; but the treat-the-people-like-they're-stupid tactic has been brought out yet again. So, yet again, I will criticize.

The Department of the Interior says they will allow some drilling for oil to resume. The economy will take off like a shot now, surely!

Hold on there.

This is how the leftists try to convince the Useful Idiots out there that someone in D.C. has a clue what should be done. What should be done is briefly summed up as "Drill here, drill now, pay less" but there is a problem with that strategy. The problem is that the Democrats in Congress are beholden to watermelon environmentalist pressure groups. We CANNOT allow drilling here, now, for lower energy prices, because it prevents Democrats being supported by the leftist environmentalist-whacko base demographic. So what we'll do instead of "Something" is put out statements which sound nice but will have little short-term benefit.

When you tell a giant monster mega oil company they can't drill for oil anymore, they take their half-million-dollars-a-day-whether-they-are-drilling-or-not drilling platform somewhere they can, you know, actually drill. Scheduling this takes many many months. For Uncle to suddenly turn around and say "just kidding, come drill again!" will lead to relatively little effort in the short-term. Not only is it hideously expensive and time-consuming to relocate and start up a drilling rig, the payout is long-term. The roughnecks sometimes have to keep drilling for a while to produce a winner. It is even possible, if Exxon (or whoever) thinks Interior will turn right around and kick them off their oil lease again in six months

they
won't
bother

coming back. But you rubes in flyover country will hear that President Obama tried to get the oil companies to come play again but they wouldn't. The press can then whip up your feverish little mind to blame the Republicans now (closer to being) in power, and the Democrats escape blame for the damage their policies do. Great success!

Don't fall for it. Remember next November: incumbent politicians from BOTH parties allow the moratoria on new drilling to continue, year after year. Energy security? Is that a lobbying group?

Vote the bums out.

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(spin)
In Related news, President Obama has failed yet again to live up to his promises to the environmental movement, and declared he will allow deep water oil drilling just like the Deepwater Horizon was doing before it blew up in the gulf . . .

Oil, Dispersant Still Being Deposited In Gulf of Mexico

Naked Capitalism brings a guest post from Washington's Blog. Click through to find a few DOZEN headlines about:

The well is still pouring out fresh crude oil
Somebody is spraying dispersants from blacked-out planes at night
People are being sprayed and getting sick
Kids play with tar balls on the beach and hemmorage from their ears.
Women working on the ocean hemmorage from BOTH southern exposures
The government is intimidating people into silence
Shrimpers fishing IN oil, seafood not being tested for presence of chemicals

Reasonable observers saw this coming. Even I saw this coming. Click the "Oil" tag at the bottom of this post and look at my predictions as far back as July. Be surprised if you see more than one of the stories in the Naked Capitalism post discussed in the next seven days on the MSM news. In an anti-incumbent election year, remember: this happened on the Democrats' watch.

Hey Look The Goodyear Blimp!

BP is testing to see if the blown-out nightmare well is dead. I bet you a penny they will say it is. I bet you another penny the announcement declaring the well dead will have no mention of fractured seabed geology or mysterious new plumes of oil and fish kills.

This well will never be killed until they suck ALL the pressure out of it through production wells. Until then, it's leaking, but not through the pipe the Deepwater Horizon laid. It's leaking around the pipe, and it's leaking MILES across fractured seabed geological structure, to pop up as a bunch of big "natural" leaks on the sea floor.

So, the logical thing to do is to sink as many oil wells into this very large known source of crude oil as possible, and start sucking it all out. This has the side benefit of making your car run.

Until we get a few dozen more nuclear plants on line (Thanks President Carter!), or get the oil shale around Utah deemed no-longer a national "don't produce here" zone (thanks President Clinton!), what else are you going to do for energy?

In Case You Were Wondering About That Whole Oil Well Leak Story

I know it was like weeks ago, so you may have forgotten about it, but BP et. al. are still not done killing the well which blew up the Deepwater Horizong drilling rig.

And it will be hard to kill because the earth is all broken-y down there. It may continue to leak for years and years.

Just saying. Because the MSM won't.

Peak Oil

Don't sweat it.

BP's PR Nightmare Is Over?

They are saying the "static kill" procedure has worked. They are also saying "hey where's the beef oil gone? It looks like BP is starting to slip off the "enemy of the month" hook here.

I, for one, won't be cheering until there are 4.5 miles of concrete cured in the ocean floor, and at least one relief well is producing. We'll see I guess.

It's Probably Going To Be FINE!

They are making plans to evacuate the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a coming storm. The cap on the leaking well is to remain in place if they go . . . and nobody will be watching it. Washington's Blog points out that this could mean a leak out the side with nobody there to relieve pressure out the top again, resulting in a disastrous leak which could only be stopped by the relief wells, if at all.

My first thought was: in light of the fact that one of the pieces of equipment down there is rated at 5000PSI working pressure, and pressure is higher than that and rising already, I wonder if that part will hold? I'm tired. . . I think I read about this in comments at Naked Capitalism . . . but leaving a part holding back the gusher unattended, at 150% of MAWP is, to use a euphemsim, highly irregular.

I hope it will be okay. We'll see what happens, when they get back and start looking again. Prayers would probably be a good idea.

Static Kill = Top Kill, Likely Also To Fail, Not Be Reported A Failure

So they have stopped the leak at the top, where the cameras show that BP owes Uncle Sam a few million dollars in penalties for pouring a jillion gallons of oil into the sea. Fine. Some of us will take some convincing that the casing is not pouring oil in to plausibly-deniable seeps elsewhere on the ocean floor.

Now they are talking about a "static kill" of the broken well. The "top kill" procedure was risky and it failed. I had high hopes for it as did many people, but that was before it became drastically obvious that the casing of the well is badly compromised. The top kill would have worked but the mud leaked out the sides of the pipe, into the ocean floor. BP has not repaired those leaking sections of casing. Allow me to make a humble prediction, with regret:

The "static kill" will also leak mud out into the ocean floor, far, far below the range of video cameras. The procedure will continue, until BP is forced to admit that it has failed. The relief wells continue to be the only somewhat-sure way to close off the gusher of oil. Not that you would get that impression from the highly-positive coverage the "static kill" will be getting in the coming days, if they decide to move forward with it. I will be very pleased indeed, if I am proved wrong. The new worst-case scenario is that they call it a job with a few thousand feet of mud in the top of the pipe. The relief wells, mere yards from success, are abandoned. The gusher continues to blast out the sides of the pipe, into places where it can seep into the Gulf of Mexico. Then the seals on the top cap fail and the gusher re-opens after BP has gone home and nobody notices, until the satellite imagery shows a fresh slick on the surface.

*sigh*

BP Whistles, Looks At Sky, Shuffles Foot

Heylookthegoodyearblimp!

Okay, I admit my timing was off. Initially, my gut reaction said "next week" but "next month" is what I published. Turns out reality split the difference. Now I'm not one to say "I told you so," but just go ahead and click on that first link, in case you forgot what I said a couple of weeks ago.

Raise Your Hand If You Notice A Pattern

In the last couple of days I have stumbled across Washington's Blog, where some actual expert reporting is going on about the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Today an interesting point has been made.

The banks went through a "stress test" that was nothing more than a publicity stunt designed to lull a gullible populace into thinking everything was okay. Now a possibly critically damaged well is going to be put through a stress test designed to lull a dullible populace into thinking everything is okay.

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Except that in the case of the well, success means Max. Working Pressure of some of the pipes is exceeded by half-again. For days. This, while the permanent solution (relief well) is single-digits of yards from possible total success and it has been put on hold for the duration of the stress test.

Why? So you can stop bothering about looking at live camera shots of spewing oil. Not because it is going to stop the oil, but because it stops you seeing the oil.

BP To Cap SURFACE Oil Leak

Headline tomorrow: BP installs new cap, will shut off flow from the damaged riser to 0%, everybody rejoices! Live camera shows NO oil spewing into the gulf, great PR success, high five!

Headline next month: Mysterious new seepage of a whole lot of oil from the seabed, miles from the Deepwater Horizon site. BP last seen whistling, looking at sky, shuffling foot.

You cap the top off, and the oil pours up a pipeline to a waiting ship. Great. A million gallons a day captured instead of spilled. Fantastic. That million gallons is pushing against the weight of a mile-long pipeline-full of oil. A sign off a successful installation for this cap will be HIGH pressure inside the pipeline.

THE CASING IS BROKEN. High pressure. On the TOP end of the pipe which is broken to an unknown degree somewhere a thousand feet or more beneath the seabed. Oil is going to "surprise" BP by breaking out of the casing in increasing volume. You may even see stories about the pressure in the cap falling. I wonder if we will see this link drawn by the lamestream media.

Whatever the case may be, the ultimate solution -if the well can be stopped- is the relief wells. WellS. They know full well that one, two, or four relief wells may not do the trick. Don't be surprised if the first relief well can't get it plugged. And don't forget that the oil which is currently leaking down there, is less than leaks onto land from normal surface wells in 3rd-world countries in Africa.

Oil is messy.

Nuke-you-ler.

Nuke The Well Already! What's The Worst That Could Happen?

Sean Hannity has been a vocal advocate of using a nuclear bomb to seal the leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico. For once, he has is even agreeing with world-renowned oil industry expert Bill Clinton.

Hold on there.

It might not work. the only trials of this sort of thing were under vastly different circumstances and it has proven less-than-100% effective. AND if it doesn't work, it makes the leaking oil problem much, much worse PLUS adding radioactive materials into the ocean right before hurricane season.

More reading here which leads you to here and then to here. That link trail originated at Mish's place.

Note that Hannity is also a big fan of another sounds-good-but-isn't-necessarily-good idea, building sand berms to keep oil off the existing coastline. That, as with the nuke idea, is a bad choice which should only be made to stave off a worse consequence, which carries horrendous consequences of its own to the party.

The relief wells will likely work, unless they don't, including unless the relief well drilling rigs also go up in fireballs. Two relief wells might not work, but don't be alarmed . . . five have been required for other bad spills.

Have a nice day!

zOMG REFINERY PERMITS REJECTED!!!1! EVERYBODY PANIC

Depending on whom you ask, that is. This is yet another reason why you must seek news from several sources. You not only can't trust the old media, you can't even trust ME! Or, as President Reagan said, "Trust, but verify"

A caller gave Sean Hannity a tip about the Environmental Protection Agency removing authorization to continue operations at 122 industrial facilities in Texas, including a couple of oil refineries. The more accurate way to say it is they have to change their permits for reasons which may or may not have anything to do with protecting the environment. Here is the money quote from a lawyer for local energy companies:

"I don't think anybody is going to shut down; it's just more of an environment-permitting nightmare," -Richard Alonso, counsel for Bracewell & Guiliani LLP

I Hope They Bring Cameras.

The press in the US has been effectively kicked out of the gulf coastal region. No pictures. No writing. No AIRCRAFT on which either could happen, or both at once. Why? Because Obama knows this oil spill is political murder on him, because he sucked at the whole thing since Day #9.

Finally, 70 days later, he has agreed to allow 12 foreign nations and private companies who were champing at the bit to help with the cleanup, to come clean up. No word on what conditions they might be required to meet to join the club. Also no word on what countries are being "allowed" in to help.

Why wouldn't they tell us what countries are going to come help the cleanup?

Because shut up that's why.

At any rate, I sincerely hope that we start getting some grainy-as-heck cell phone video of pelicans covered in oil and miles, miles, and miles of oil slicks on the sea and the beach, posted to Youtube, by the crewmen of the ships coming in to help with the cleanup.

Why would you want to see that?

Because Barry doesn't want you to. That he's against it is almost reason enough to be for it. Nevermind that if it were Bush, it would be a)Bush's fault and b) a violation of the Public's Right to KNOW!!!1! that he imposed a no-fly zone over the Gulf, and is not allowing reporters in to report what's (not) being done.