BDI Baltic Dry Shipping Index: Recovery or False Hope?

I mentioned previously that the BDI had fallen off a cliff but the crash seemed to be slowing in November 2008. Here it's February 2009 and the our clueless fearless leaders are starting to get the idea that the economy in the US is still on the decline. Well, duh.

But have a look at this here: (click the image to enlarge)



It is entirely possible that this is a sign of foolish optimism on the part of people who make things that require dry shipping. The whole shebang could fall down again. I would prefer to see this new, slightly higher-than-historic level of the BDI continue. If it does, that means we have possibly (worldwide) gone from the leg to the bottom of the current L-shaped recession/depression.

If there is a rebound to levels like what we saw in 2008, that is actually bad for your wallet. We need this depression, as I have previously said, to return the worldwide economy to sane price/income levels. I anticipate that, whatever level the BDI settles on for a few months, it will not rise much beyond that for the next year because of the huge bubble-burst we are going through.

Anyhow, it looks like the end of the world is not yet, and TEOTWAWKI fears are not (yet) going to come true.

Good.

P.S. if you don't know what the Baltic Dry Index is, or why it is important, have a gander at wikinvest.com for more information.